Friday, February 27, 2009

Some Thoughts on the Markets

In thinking about how to best navigate my investment portfolio away from the rocks and shoals it's currently aground on, I've been looking at the Dow's performance since the crash of '29. One thing that strikes me when looking at a logarithmic graph of the DJIA over time is that from the end of WWII until 1965 or so, market growth was fairly steady. Then, from '65 until about '85 it was flat, returning to its previous growth rate from '85 until the bubble burst last fall. Okay, I know this is a VERY simplistic look at things, but it sure seems to me that the market was flat from the Great Society era until the Reagan Revolution. Since we seem to be hell-bent on returning to those halcyon days of the war on poverty, I think that we're in for a flat market (being ever the optimist) at roughly the 7000-8000 level until we have a tax revolution and kick the current bums out of office. Something tells me I'll be moving my investments off-shore for a few years.

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